Dear Reader:

1. An update on the concern in the scientific community that the virus, SARS-Cov-2, can re-infect recovered individuals: an article four hours ago, www. msn. com/ en-us/ health/ health-news/ recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-testing-positive-again-can-you-get-reinfected reads: “health officials are trying to solve a mystery: why 163 people who recovered from coronavirus have tested positive.. The KCDC (Korean Center of Disease Control and Prevention) has re-investigated three cases from the same family where patients tested positive after recovering, Kwong says. In each of these cases, scientists tried to incubate the virus but weren’t able to- that told them there was no live virus present… RT-PCR test works by finding evidence of the virus’s genetic information-or RNA- in a sample taken from the patient. According to Kwong, these tests may still be picking up parts of the RNA even after the person has recovered because tests are so sensitive… The same theory was posted by one of China’s top respiratory experts, Zhong Nanshan. In a press conference earlier this week, he said that a recovered person can test positive because fragments of the disease remained in their body. “I’m not too worried about this issue,” he added”

– good news then: Cov-2 is not expected to re-infect recovered individuals so soon after recovery.

2. Update regarding the Scandinavian countries where Sweden is the only country of the four that didn’t issue lockdowns and where citizens’ responses to the pandemic is up to them, in four days since my last report, above (April 14):

Sweden reports an increase of 2,377 cases (a 21% increase), an increase of 478 deaths (a 46% increase), 150 deaths per million (a 68% increase). 9% of patients are in serious or critical condition, and 91% are in mild condition (same as four days ago). Sweden’s Daily New Cases graph does not show a flattening of the curve, to me.

Denmark reports an increase of 731 cases (a 11% increase), an increase of 47 deaths  (a 16% increase), 60 deaths per million (a 15% increase); 2% of patients are in serious or critical condition and 98% are in mild condition. Their New Cases graph looks flattening to me (as in the desired flattening of the curve).

Norway reports an increase of 413 cases (a 6% increase), an increase of 24 deaths (a 17% increase), 30 deaths per million (a 15% increase), and their New Cases graph looks very flattening to me.

Finland reports an increase of 520 cases (a 16% increase), an increase of 26 deaths (a 41% increase), 16 deaths per million (an increase of 33%), 4% of patients are in serious or severe condition and 96% are in mild condition. Their New Daily Cases graph looks flattening, but has a very recent spike to it.

My summary of this four day update: Sweden is still leading the way as far as increased number of cases (almost double the increase of Denmark and more than 3 times the increase in Norway, but only slightly more than the increase in Finland. Sweden also leads the way in the increase of deaths, almost 3 times the increase in Denmark and Norway, but slightly more than that of Finland. For some reason Finland is not doing well lately, according to these numbers. The country doing the best of the four is Norway, and the country doing the worst is Sweden.

* An article from April 4 in nationalinterest. org/ blog/ buzz/ Nordic-countries-have-radically-different-coronavirus-strategies-lets-compare, reads: “As of March 28, the reproductive numbers (Ro) for Sweden and Norway are estimated to be 2.47 and 0.97 respectively”, which means that the virus, Cov-2 is 2.54 times more contagious in Sweden than it is in Norway.

“Unsurprisingly, the spread of the virus is also estimated to be among the highest in Sweden and lowest in Norway.. likely reflecting the radically different containment strategies.”

anita

Dear Reader:

New York City:

(another numbers warning: lots of numbers to follow):

New York City (NYC) is the most populous city in the State of New York (NY), and in the whole USA, with a population of 8,175,133. NYC has 73% of the population of NY (11,202,969), and 2.5% of the USA population (about 331 millions).

NYC’s total cases: 131,263, which is 54% of the total cases in NY (241,041), and 18% of the total cases in all of the U.S. (741,230, including 50 states, territories, military, Navajo Nation, Grand Princess and Diamond Princess ships and Wuhan Repatriated). There are 12,286 cases per million population in NYC, and 2,239 cases per million in the whole USA (NYC has 5.5 times the number of cases per million population than in all of the USA).

NYC’s Total deaths: 8,893, which is 50% of the total deaths in NY (17,671), and 23% of the total US deaths (39,103).

The first case of Covid-19 in NY was confirmed on March 1, 2020; it was a 39 year old woman health care worker who returned from Iran, with no symptoms on Feb 25 back, to her home in Manhattan, NYC. The number of new cases reached its peak March 18-20, with over 70% increase in new cases, and has decreased since to a 3.09% increase in new cases yesterday, April 18.

So the Daily New Cases graph for NYC started its climb up March 1, reached its pick 20 days later, and decreased in the month following: roughly 20 days the graph went up, peaked, and has been going down 30 days.

* to continue.

anita

* Correction and editing of my first post today, April 19, from “The number of new cases reached its peak..”:

The number of daily new cases reached its peak for NY State and NY City on three days: March 18-20, rising 73%, 74% and 71% respectively for the state, and 108%, 84% and 79% respectively for the city.

The Daily New Cases graph for NY (State and City) started its climb up after the first confirmed case of March 1, went up for 20 days, reached its 3 day peak, then went down for 30 days to its lowest point today, April 19: 2.56% increase in new cases for the state and 2.4% for the city.

NYC went from 108% increase in new cases on March 18 (its peak) to 2.4% today.

* I took the numbers from worldometers, and from Wikipedia’s entries on “2020 coronavirus pandemic in New York State” and on “2020 coronavirus pandemic in New York City”. I came up with some of the percentages using my calculator.

anita

Dear Reader:

Using the numerical and graph data from www. worldometers. info/ coronavirus, and my calculator, here are three countries doing well or better, as far as the containment of Covid-19:

1. China:  there are currently only 959 active cases. Of the total cases of over 82 thousands, 98.84% of the cases closed (94% recovered and 6% died).

2. South Korea: there are currently 2,051 active cases. Of the total cases of over ten thousand,  80.84% of the cases closed (97.2% recovered and 2.8% died).

3. New Zealand: there are currently only 370  active cases. Of the total cases of over one thousand,  74.5% of the cases closed (98.5% recovered, 1.5% died)

A bit more about the three countries, looking at the Total Cases Graphs, the Daily New Cases Graphs, and the Active Cases Graphs for each country:

1. China’s daily new cases graph peaked Feb 12 & 13 has gone down ever since. China’s active cases graph peaked Feb 18 and went down 98% from Feb 18 to April 22, with an average of  53 less active cases per day.

* March 30 (marketplace. org): “Nearly all of China’s major industrial companies have reportedly resumed production… Cars and people are back on the streets of Shanghai. The parks are open and simple stuff like going to the movies or visiting a tourist hotspot is gradually being allowed again. Over the weekend, however, officials ordered them to close to prevent the risk of new infection”.

2. South Korea’s daily new case graph peaked repeatedly: Feb 29, March 3, March 5, March 11, and a few more lesser peaks afterwards before flattening . Its active cases graph peaked March 11 and went down all the way to April 21, with an average decrease of 126 active cases per day.

*April 19, “Seoul (Reuters)- South Koreans are returning to work and crowding shopping malls, parks, golf courses and some restaurants as South Korea relaxes social distancing rules… a growing list of companies.. ended or eased their work from home policy in recent weeks, though many continue to apply flexible working hours and limit travel and face-to-face meetings”.

3. New Zealand’s daily new cases graph peaked March 28, April 2, April 5,  April 8, April 10, and gone down since. The active cases graph peaked April 9 and went down an average decrease of 35 active cases per day.

*April 20 (Washingtontimes. com): “New Zealand next Monday will ease its lockdown restrictions from ‘Level 4’ to ‘Level 3’ as officials believe the worst of the coronavirus outbreak in the country has passed”.

My notes: containing Covid-19 in each country means to have the vast majority of active cases closed, and monitoring and containing a minimal number of active cases; then ease up economic and social restrictions gradually, monitoring new infections, bringing back restrictions where concerns arise, and so forth.

* *The growing numbers of recovered Covid-19 patients is encouraging as far as plasma being collected and used to treat severe cases of Covid-19 (currently collections of plasma and its use to treat severe cases are in practice), and to be used for research in regard to using plasma for possible treatment of all Covid-19 patients.

anita

• This reply was modified 4 years, 7 months ago by .

Dear isabelle;

Good to have you here on  my thread, what a pleasant surprise!

You wrote: “Chloroquine and other drug of that family seems to work.. Here politics and famous people take it when they are infected but not the ‘little’ people”-

– There is no cure for Covid-19 at this time. Some drugs are in development, but none has been approved.

– I don’t think that anyone infected with Covid-19, in their right mind, would take Chloroquine because this is an anti-malaria drug, it has never been approved to treat Covid-19, it is not even close to being approved. Plus, an April 13 article in irishtimes. com titled “chloroquine study on covid-19 patients halted over risk of heart complications”, reads:

“A small study in Brazil was halted early for safety reasons after coronavirus patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine developed irregular hear rates that increased their risk of a potentially fatal heart arrhythmia (an abnormal heart rhythm)”.

So, you see, it would be dangerous to take Chloroquine for Covid-19!

anita

• This reply was modified 4 years, 7 months ago by .

Dear Reader:

The world coronavirus cases is approaching 3 millions, deaths just above 200 thousands. Over 840 thousand people recovered from Covid-19 so far. Of the less than 2 million people sick with Covid-19, 97% experience mild symptoms and 3% experience serious or critical symptoms.

China, where it started: there are currently 801 people infected with Covid-19. The number of recovered people is 96.6 times greater than the number of people who are currently infected, and 16.7 times the number of people who died. So far, 4,632 people died in China of Covid-19.

The total cases graph started flattening Feb 18 and it appears almost flat since March 1. The daily new cases graph shows its greatest spike on Feb 12 with 14,108 new cases on that day, a 5 digit number. It went down to a 4 digit number the next day (5,090), almost half of that the next day, and lesser since. There were 143 new cases on March 5, 99 new cases on March 6, 44 new cases March 7, lesser two digit numbers all through a small spike of 108 new cases on April 12, then back to 2-digits. The next 3-digit spike was 325 new cases on April 17, then back to 2-digits, and 11 new cases today. The active cases graph peaked Feb 17 and currently and for some time, looks flat.

January 10, the first death and 41 confirmed cases were reported in Wuhan. By Jan 22, the virus spread to major cities and provinces in China (571 cases, 17 deaths), plus cases were reported in other countries, from Hong Kong to the United States.

On January 23, the central government of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan (the capital of the central China province called Hubei, the most populous city in Central China with a population over 11 millions) and other cities in Hubei  in an effort to quarantine the center of the outbreak. This action is commonly referred to as the “Wuhan lockdown”. The WHO called the lockdown “unprecedented in public health history”. Travel restriction were imposed in between all the cities in Hubei, affecting about 57 million people. All public transport were suspended (buses, railways, flights, ferry services). Wuhan residents were not allowed to leave the city without permission from authorities (about 300,000 residents left Wuhan by train alone before the 10 am lockdown, a mass exodus). Major highways leaving Wuhan were shut down. All  non-essential companies were shut down.

On Feb 2, a 7-day lockdown was implemented in which only one person per household was allowed to exit once each two days, and in which most of the highway exists were closed.

Many areas across China (207 cities by Feb 12) implemented what is called “close management”: villages and communities kept one entrance and exit point open, and each household was allowed limited numbers (none in extreme cases) of entrances and exits. People entering and leaving were required to wear masks and receive temperature tests.

On March 13, a couple of Hubei’s cities removed some of their strict travel restrictions. On March 25, Hubei lifted the lockdown outside of Wuhan, and on April 8, the Wuhan lockdown officially ended.

www. cnn. com/ 2020/04/23/ asia/ Wuhan-coronavirus-after-lockdown:

Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the pandemic: the first known cases of the virus were detected there in mid December 2019. It was the first city in the world to go into lockdown. The lockdown  lasted 76 days, and was lifted on April 8. Two weeks after the lifting, restaurants offer takeaway food and are not allowed eat-in dining.  Many stores, including Starbucks have moved their goods and services out onto the sidewalk to avoid the need for  customers to congregate inside. Barbers offer their services outdoors. Gyms are closed. Even after businesses reopened, there are not many customers. Walking down the street, almost everyone continued to practice social distancing.

“there is nothing of the packed bustle which once- characterized Wuhan. For every opened shopfront, there is another one shuttered.. Checking into their hotel, the CNN team were required to give their travel history and had their temperature taken, before being sprayed down with disinfectant. by the hotel workers”.

*Other resources for this post: worldometers and Wikipedia.

anita

Dear Reader, (continued from the previous post):

* Sweden and Norway: although Norway’s 86% of closed cases ended in death (compared to Sweden’s 69%), Norway’s death number  is 38 per million population, and Sweden’s is 244 per million population, significantly higher than that of Norway. And if you look at the daily new cases graph and the active cases graph of Norway vs. Sweden, Norway’s looks stable/ flattening in comparison to the up-and-down and still peaking graphs of Sweden.

www. msn. com/ en-us/ news/ world/ Sweden-takes-a-different-approach-to-coronavirus-pandemic, from yesterday (paraphrased and quotes):

1. Unlike many other countries, in Sweden there is an established mutual trust between the government and the citizens. More than 80% of the residents say they think their country’s approach is the right one, and citizens cooperate with the government’s recommendations. The government does not issues bans and restrictions; it recommends and suggests and citizens cooperate willingly. Citizens show a strong social responsibility, caring to act responsibly toward each other.

For example, the government did not tell ski resorts to close for Easter, a popular ski holiday time, but the resorts closed anyway, by their own choice.

Anders Tegnell, the current state epidemiologist of Sweden, speaks to the people in a calm, professional manner, and appears honest and trustworthy. “One of the real assets we have is calmness, a sense of normalcy, in this difficult situation.. Tegnell.. is an important part of that”, said Tragardh, a professor of history and civil society in Stockholm.

(My comment: this is not the situation in the USA for example, where the president does not appear calm or trustworthy, and he offered very ignorant health recommendations during daily press conferences to citizens, and where health experts are afraid to clearly contradict him. And this is not the situation in many countries where bans and restrictions are issued, not recommended)

2. Sweden’s healthcare system has not been overburdened, and plenty of intensive-care beds are free: the country more than doubled its ICU capacity to over 1,000 beds, and currently 550 of those are occupied. So Sweden is not in any immediate threat of not being able to handle Covid-19 cases that need hospitalizations.

3. Sweden is a relatively small country, about ten million population only, not densely populated overall; over 50% of the homes are single-dwelling households (more than half of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden occurred in elderly homes). Many people work from home, having fast internet access, and the Swedish character is such that people keep their social distance in normal times, before the pandemic. “A popular meme is a before and after Covid picture of a bus stop, with people two meters apart in both frames.”

4. There is a mix of actions not taken and actions taken in Sweden to contain the pandemic, but overall there has been a significant drop in social activity:primary schools remain open, restaurants are open, although tables are set farther apart. High schools and universities are closed, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned (no music concerts, sport events and the like), people over 70 and those who feel ill are encouraged to stay home. As a result of all these actions, “statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in Stockholm. Travel over the Easter weekend dropped more than 90%.

5. Even though Sweden did not impose a lockdown, and its policy is lax in comparison to other countries, its economy is “still expected to be hit hard.. GDP could shrink by 10% this year and unemployment could rise to 13.5%. Sweden is an export-led economy and thus dependent on a global economy that has effectively shut down.. 90,000 people had filed for unemployment in the last four to five weeks”. But economies in other countries are hit worse than in Sweden.

6. Five days ago, on April 24, a group of 22 doctors, virologists, and researchers criticized Sweden’s public health agency: “The approach must be changed radically and quickly.. As the virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants.. Elected representatives must intervene, there is no other choice”.

Soderberg-Naucler, a Swedish immunologist and professor, said that death rates appear to be higher than those cited by the  Swedish health authority, suggesting a fatality rate closer to 1.7%, and that she does not see the ‘plateau’ that the authorities are citing and suggests that ICUs could still be overwhelmed in a few weeks time. She said that there are too many unknowns about the virus and therefore the government’s strategy is too risky.

* India: currently, as I type this, the numbers of deaths in India is 1,008, which is 0.7 deaths per million population (unlike Sweden’s 2,462 current deaths, which is 244 deaths per million population (worldometers)

www. msn. com/ en- us/ news/ world/ India-coronavirus-how-a-country-of-13-billion-people-has-around-1000-deaths:

“Experts predicted that the country could expect millions of coronavirus cases.. that could cripple the country’s ill-equipped health system. Onlookers worried that the virus could spread like wildfire through India’s slums, where residents live in cramped quarters and basic sanitation often isn’t available. But so far, the world’s second-most populous country appears to have avoided the worst… Some experts say that India’s relatively positive numbers suggest the country’s nationwide lockdown to halt the spread of Covid-19 could be working– f0r now. ‘India didn’t wait for the problem to escalate’, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on April 14, as he extended the country’s 21-day nationwide lockdown until May 3. ‘Instead, as soon as the problem appeared, we tried to stop  it by making swift decisions”.

“On March 24, Modi announced that the country was going into a three-week lockdown. The scale of it was unprecedented. India has a population of 1.3 billion, and the only country with a bigger population– China- had imposed city-wide lockdowns, but never a nationwide one… India moved into lockdown relatively quickly- it was announced when the country had reported 519 coronavirus cases. By comparison, Italy waited until it had more than 9,200 coronavirus cases before it went into a nationwide lockdown… On March 11, India suspended all tourist visas.. From March 22, all international commercial flights were banned from landing in India and all passenger train services in the country were suspended.”

“As with every country, our understanding of the outbreak is only as  good as the numbers we have available.. India’s testing rate is extremely low per capita. Only about 48 out of every 100,000 people have been tested, compared with around 1,175 in South Korea and 1,740 in the US… (but) If there was a huge surge in Covid-19 cases that weren’t being caught by testing, then hospitals would be crowded with cases and there would be a spike in influenza- like symptoms in the community.. For now, there’s no indication of either”.

“Even when India isn’t facing a pandemic, only about 22% of all registered deaths are medically certified. That means that, in the majority of deaths, the official cause of death has not been certified by a doctor. And there’s already evidence that some deaths may be flying under the radar. A resident doctor at one of the main government hospitals in Mumbai said last week that when dead bodies were brought into the hospital, they didn’t test them for coronavirus, even if they suspected that was how patients died… But, experts say, at this stage, it doesn’t look like there is a huge flood of coronavirus deaths.

‘Even if we are not testing enough and are not discovering enough, there are not enough  bodies being piled up in hospitals or in ICUs or in mortuaries.. to suggest we are in the midst of something really dramatic at this stage,’ said Saran.”

“There’s a huge diversity of opinion about what will happen when India lifts its lockdown on May 3- whether cases will then skyrocket, or if the lockdown will have succeeded in restraining numbers… The determining factor will likely be what restrictions are still in place when the lockdown lifts”.

anita

Dear isabelle:

I thought about you earlier today, wondering if you post again, and here you are, what a pleasant surprise!

I want to re-read your post tomorrow morning because I am too tired this afternoon (woke up way too early) to look into anything scientific. So I will be back to you tomorrow, on this thread.

Take good care of yourself and your husband and thank you for the post and the new photo.

anita